“Existentially important politics,” by James Bosworth, Latin America Risk Report, December 26, 2023.
In recent years, we don’t get many boring elections in the hemisphere. Instead, it feels like every president is elected in a moment of crisis with a mandate to change the direction of the country. In the space between elections, political systems experience existential clashes because they know the next election will also be a fight over potential radical change.
“Trump vs Sheinbaum on Tariffs,” by James Bosworth, Latin America Risk Report, November 26, 2024.
A big risk to North America is that Claudia Sheinbaum calls Donald Trump’s bluff. Last night, President-elect Trump launched the first salvo in his planned trade war, announcing that one of his first executive orders will enact 25% tariffs on all goods from Mexico and Canada. He will also implement 10% tariffs on goods from China. The reasons given are migration and fentanyl but understood was the idea of Trump completing a campaign promise to be tariff man.
“New Supply ‘Front’ for Afghan War Runs Across Russia, Georgia and the ‘Stans,” by Bill Marmon, The European Institute, February – March 2010.
The U.S. engagement in Afghanistan, including the 30,000 “plus-up” currently underway, represents one of the most difficult logistical challenges in the annals of war – a challenge even for the United States, which is the world champion of supply solutions. Afghanistan is harder than the Vietnam “land war in Asia” or the Berlin airlift or Iraq I and II. These previous engagements, although difficult logistically, pale in comparison to the task of supplying 100,000 troops and as many contractors in Afghanistan over nine years and counting. Landlocked, mountainous, beset by civil war, banditry and extreme underdevelopment, Afghanistan is surrounded by a clutch of hostile, suspicious, barely functioning sovereignties.
“Central Asia’s Northern Exposure,” by Andrew C. Kuchins and Thomas Sanderson, The New York Times, August 2009.
Russian agreement to allow U.S. military over-flight rights to ferry lethal goods to Afghanistan was one of the signal achievements of the recent meetings in Moscow between Presidents Barack Obama and Dimtri Medvedev. Last month in Moscow, Russian officials told us that Afghanistan was the area where American and Russian interests are most closely aligned, and cooperation on stabilizing Afghanistan may be the most promising area to “reset” our bilateral relationship.
“Northern Distribution Network,” by Center for Strategic and International Studies.
As the U.S. presence in Afghanistan increases, its demand for non-military supplies in 2010-2011 will be 200-300% more than the 2008 baseline. To accommodate this increase and address ongoing concerns with Pakistani supply lines, U.S. planners have opened the Northern Distribution Network (NDN), a series of commercially-based logistical arrangements connecting Baltic and Caspian ports with Afghanistan via Russia, Central Asia, and the Caucasus. In addition to NDN, Iran and China are also considered possible transit states.
“War Unbound: Gaza, Ukraine, and the Breakdown of International Law,” by Oona A. Hathaway, Foreign Affairs, April 23, 2024.
Hamas’s attack on Israel and Israel’s response to it have been a disaster for civilians. In its October 7 massacre, Hamas sought out unarmed Israeli civilians, including women, children, and the elderly, killing close to 1,200 people and taking around 240 hostages. Israel’s subsequent air and ground campaign in Gaza has, as of March 2024, killed more than 30,000 people, an estimated two-thirds of whom were women and children. The Israeli offensive has also displaced some two million people (more than 85 percent of the population of Gaza), left more than a million people at risk of starvation, and damaged or destroyed some 150,000 civilian buildings. Today, there is no functional hospital left in northern Gaza. Hamas, Israel maintains, uses civilian structures as shields, operating in them or in tunnels beneath them—perhaps precisely because such buildings have been considered off-limits for military operations under international law.
“In Pursuit of the Possible: Addressing Population Flows in the Americas,” remarks by Filippo Grandi, United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees at Georgetown University, Washington, DC, June 3, 2024.
Having been a student myself in Jesuit schools, it means a lot to be here for the first time! It is also a significant moment to be speaking at a university campus – and such a prestigious one at that. Complex and controversial as this may be, what is happening in universities in the United States and around the world proves that young people remain as engaged in international events as ever. This is good, because — and forgive an older man’s remark — there was a perception that such an interest, so prominent in my own youth, was fading. But thankfully and obviously it is not — whether it is about conflicts, climate, rights, justice and other causes. And this is vital if we want the world to remain a vibrant, responsive place at a time of such steep global challenges.
“Success in the Struggle against the People’s Republic of China,” by Dr. John Lee and Dr. Lavina Lee, Hudson Institute, June 2023.
In April 2023, the Australian government released the officially commissioned but independently produced Defence Strategic Review. Intended to assist the government of Australia with its strategic and defense policies over the next decade and beyond, the report offered the fundamental assessment that the Indo-Pacific region “faces increasing competition that operates on multiple levels—economic, military, strategic and diplomatic—all interwoven and all framed by an intense contest of values and narratives.”
“A Paradigm Shift in America’s Asia Policy,” by Dr. John Lee, Foreign Affairs,
n 1988, U.S. Secretary of State George Shultz embarked on a three-week tour of Asia, stopping in Hong Kong and mainland China, Indonesia, Japan, the Marshall Islands, the Philippines, South Korea, and Thailand. Shultz sat through long meetings to assure his hosts of Washington’s enduring friendship and interest in the region—engaging in what the diplomat Nicholas Burns described in Foreign Affairs in 2021 as “weeding, watering, and watching over the diplomatic garden.”
“China Can’t Evade the Iron Laws of Economics,” by John Lee, Wall Street Journal,
Xi Jinping seeks “high quality” rather than “high speed” growth, he told the Chinese Communist Party’s Third Plenum, held last week to decide the country’s economic policy over the next five years. Some observers say this is simply rationalizing the Chinese economy’s problems—enormous government and corporate debt, an inflated property sector, and disappointing growth in private and household consumption—which have gotten worse under Mr. Xi’s watch. Others counter that Mr. Xi is doing the right thing by focusing on high-tech sectors such as semiconductors, artificial intelligence, aeronautics and renewables to underpin a high-quality growth model.
“The ‘Climate Crisis’ Fades Out,” by Steven E. Koonin, Wall Street Journal, June 10, 2023.
The 2015 Paris Agreement aspired to “reduce the risks and impacts of climate change” by eliminating greenhouse-gas emissions in the latter half of this century. The centerpiece of the strategy was a global transition to low-emission energy systems. After nearly a decade, it’s timely to ask how that energy transition is progressing and how it might fare in the future… To continue reading, click here.
“Our unsettled climate future,” by Steven E. Koonin, Schweizer Monat, April 22, 2024.
Human influences on the climate are physically small – they shift the planet’s energy flows by only about 1 percent. That doesn’t mean we can ignore them, because the climate system is sensitive. But it does exacerbate the challenge of understanding what future climates will be…To continue reading, click here.
“Will Climate Change Really Put New York Underwater?” by Steven E. Koonin, Wall Street Journal, January 4, 2023.
A recent National Aeronautics and Space Administration report yet again raises alarm that New Yorkers are about to be inundated by rapidly rising seas. But a review of the data suggests that such warnings need to be taken with more than a few grains of sea salt… To continue reading, click here.
5 Articles from Elizabeth Cameron
Posted on Tuesday July 23 2024
“National Security Memorandum on UnitedStates Global Leadership to Strengthen the International COVID-19 Response and to Advance Global Health Security and Biological Preparedness,” by US White House, National Security Memorandum, January 21, 2021.
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is a grave reminder that biological threats, whether naturally occurring, accidental, or deliberate, can have significant and potentially existential consequences for humanity. This memorandum reaffirms Executive Order 13747 of November 4, 2016, which made clear that these threats pose global challenges that require global solutions… To continue reading, click here.
“A bipartisan approach to pandemic security? It’s within reach,” by Beth Cameron, Gary Edson, and J. Stephen Morrison, STAT News, February 27, 2023.
Americans should be worried — and hopeful — that the Biden administration has announced it will end the Covid-19 public health emergency in May. Worried because the United States has not yet achieved pandemic security, despite decades of investment and three years of Covid-19, which has revealed how much American pandemic security rests on democratic and civic strength, both currently in short supply… To continue reading, click here.
“Why the World Needs Its Own Immune System,” by Atul Gawande, The New York Times, December 25, 2023.
The thing that has surprised me most since I began my job leading foreign assistance for global health at the U.S. Agency for International Development is how much emergencies have defined my work… To continue reading, click here.
“A new initiative will help governors and local leaders fight the next pandemic,” by Asa Hutchinson and Deval Patrick, STAT News, June 6, 2024.
No one knows when the next pandemic will sweep across the United States. It could be bird flu, or an as-yet unknown infection. But after living through the Covid-19 pandemic, which claimed more than 1 million American lives, left more than 300,000 children orphaned, and shut down workplaces and schools, U.S. citizens should demand that the nation does better next time… To continue reading, click here.
“The United States Needs A Better Testing Playbook For Future Public Health Emergencies,” by Jennifer B. Nuzzo, Aquielle Person, Elizabeth Cameron, Jill Taylor, Ewa King, Mara Aspinall, and Scott Becker, Health Affairs, June 2024.
The absence of a comprehensive national playbook for developing and deploying testing has hindered the United States’ ability to rapidly suppress recent biological emergencies (for example, the COVID-19 pandemic and outbreaks of mpox). We describe here the Testing Playbook for Biological Emergencies, a national testing playbook we developed… To continue reading, click here.
3 Articles from Ambassador Lawrence Butler
Posted on Friday June 28 2024
“NATO Ready for Battle, but Lacks Stamina, Report Finds,” by Laura Heckman, National Defense, June 11, 2024.
Since NATO’s adoption of a “back to the future” strategy at its Madrid Summit two years ago on the heels of Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine, the alliance has made significant strides toward forward defense and deterrence, and a recent report said the alliance is prepared for war — as long as it’s short…
“Nato’s Washington summit will need to tackle Russian sabotage and myriad security threats,” by Alexander Gilder, The Conversation, June 26, 2024.
The leaders of Nato member states will meet in Washington DC in a few weeks and one of the topics of discussion will be how to tackle escalating incidents of Russian sabotage. Ahead of the summit on July 9-11, there has been increased Russian intelligence activity across Nato member states. The Dutch National Security Agency warned that it is possible Russia has orchestrated various arson and sabotage attacks in the UK, Poland, Sweden and Germany…
“The Global War on Terror and Diplomatic Practice,” by Larry Butler, The Foreign Service Journal, September, 2021.
Twenty years ago, jetliners crashing into New York City’s twin towers and the Pentagon shocked America out of its post–Cold War complacency, ushering in the global war on terror (GWOT) and a surge in international support for the United States. A senior State Department official, Assistant Secretary for Diplomatic Security Francis X. Taylor, speaking to the American Bar Association in late 2002, answered a question on how long the war on terror would last: “As long as it takes. Years, maybe decades…”
“The Middle East and the President’s Sweeping Power Over Self-Defense,” by Jack Goldsmith, Lawfare, October 23, 2023.
The Middle East may be on the verge of large-scale war, and the U.S. military is literally on the firing line. Late last week, the USS Carney intercepted and destroyed three missiles and several drones fired from Yemen even though it did not know where the missiles were headed. “We cannot say for certain what these missiles and drones were targeting, but they were launched heading north along the Red Sea potentially towards targets in Israel,”said Pentagon press secretary Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder. “This action was a demonstration of the integrated air and missile defense architecture that we built in the Middle East and that we are prepared to utilize whenever necessary to protect our partners and our interests,” he added.
“Can Biden Sidestep Congress on an Iran Nuclear Deal?” by Jack Goldsmith, Lawfare, June 21, 2023.
The Biden administration might soon reach an agreement of sorts with Iran that would seek, among other things, to curb Iran’s nuclear weapons program. A major complication is that the 2015 Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act (INARA) requires the president to “transmit” an “agreement” relating to the nuclear program of Iran to Congress, and then establishes a review period during which (a) the president may not exercise his sanctions-waiving authority, and (b) Congress can vote on the agreement. News reports suggest that the Biden team is laying the groundwork to argue that an informal deal with Iran does not constitute an “agreement” and thus does not trigger any reporting duty under the INARA.
“Presidential Control Over International Law,” by Curtis A. Bradley & Jack L. Goldsmith, Harvard Law Review, Volume 131, March, 2018.
Two of President Barack Obama’s most important foreign policy accomplishments were the Paris Agreement on Climate Change, which aims to lower greenhouse gas emissions, and the Iran Nuclear Agreement, which lifted international and domestic sanctions against Iran in exchange for Iran’s dismantling of its nuclear weapons development program. President Obama made both agreements unilaterally without seeking congressional approval. His successor, President Donald Trump, came into office as a critic of the agreements. He, too, acted unilaterally — this time moving to withdraw the United States from the Paris Agreement. He has also claimed the authority to unilaterally terminate the Iran deal, but to date he has not done so, in part because President Obama’s alteration of the status quo makes it difficult to terminate the deal without harming U.S. interests.
“A way forward on a US-Saudi civil nuclear agreement,” by Robert Einhorn, Brookings Institution, April 12, 2024.
The Biden administration has responded positively to Saudi Arabia’s interest in civil nuclear cooperation with the United States—both because such cooperation is a Saudi condition for the normalization of Saudi-Israeli relations, which the administration strongly supports, and because it believes a bilateral civil nuclear partnership can bring important benefits to both countries. However, such cooperation needs to be pursued in a way that can realize those benefits without increasing the risks of nuclear proliferation.
“Will Putin’s invasion spur nuclear proliferation?” by Robert Einhorn, Brookings Institution, May 24, 2023. (The following speech was delivered for the Sunrise Foundation Lecture at Yale’s Jackson School of Global Affairs on April 19, 2023.)
In July 1963, when four countries had nuclear weapons, President John F. Kennedy warned of the dangers of nuclear proliferation. He urged his audience “to stop and think for a moment what it would mean to have nuclear weapons in so many hands, in the hands of countries large and small, stable and unstable, responsible and irresponsible, scattered throughout the world. There would be no rest for anyone then, no stability, no real security, and no chance of effective disarmament.” Since then, U.S. administrations of both political parties have shared Kennedy’s concern about the spread of nuclear weapons.
By Edward Lucas, Catherine Sendak, Charlotta Collén, Jan Kallberg and Krista Viksnins, Center for European Policy Analysis, September 28, 2023.
For the countries around the Baltic Sea, Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine both highlighted a problem and created a potential solution to it. The Kremlin’s unambiguous demonstration of aggressive intent and capability underlined the risks of dismantling territorial defense after 1991: an approach pursued by Germany, Denmark, and Sweden. It also vindicated the long-standing security worries of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. These three countries have no natural frontier to the east, no strategic depth, and a combined population of less than seven million. Their land area, of 175,000 square kilometers (km2), or 67,600 square miles (mi2), is roughly less than the Ukrainian territory seized by Russia in the early months of the war. The torment experienced by Ukrainians there, echoing traumas that are still in living memory for the Baltic states, has further solidified Estonian, Latvian, and Lithuanian resolve: Not one inch, not one soul, can come under Russian control.
By Jake Walles, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, April 19, 2021.
The arrival of a new U.S. administration offers a welcome opportunity for a reset of U.S. policy vis-á-vis the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Donald Trump’s administration followed an approach that diverged sharply from those of its predecessors, but its so-called new thinking achieved little and unnecessarily alienated the United States from the Palestinians. Joe Biden’s administration will likely return to a more conventional framework but will move forward cautiously, recognizing that the current situation isn’t ripe for peacemaking. With both Israelis and Palestinians going to the polls this year, the U.S. administration will want to assess the elections’ outcomes before engaging seriously on Israeli-Palestinian affairs. Meanwhile, Secretary of State Antony Blinken has encouraged the parties to focus on “steps that create a better environment in which actual negotiations can take place.”
Lehman, Ron. “Sputnik-like Events: Responding to Technological Surprise.” In Strategic Latency: Red, White, and Blue — Managing the National and International Security Consequences of Disruptive Technologies edited by Zachary S. Davis and Michael Nacht, pp 33-51. Center for Global Security Research, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, 2016.
National security costs imposed by technological surprise can be immense. Take the case of Sputnik I,” the first man-made satellite. Launched by the Soviet Union on October 4, 1957, Sputnik—primarily a technology demonstration—humiliated a superpower, catalyzed mankind’s greatest national-security technology competition, encouraged risky geostrategic behavior, and transformed the world in ways that still shape our future. Few technological surprises match the impact of Sputnik, and like Sputnik, few are totally unexpected. Their consequences, however, are often not those anticipated.
Lehman, Ron. “Simplicity and Complexity in the Nth Nuclear Era.” In Cross-Domain Deterrence: Strategy in an Era of Complexity edited by Jon R. Lindsay and Erik Gartzke, pp 66-91. Oxford University Press, 2019.
Because separate expert organizations with distinct cultures inform nuclear, cyber, space and other special operations, perspectives often differ on strategy, capabilities, threats, and priorities. Thus, a comparative approach can provide interesting insights, analogies, and lessons learned, highlighting relative strengths and weaknesses. When confronted with the most challenging scenarios, however, an important defense policy goal is synergism between cross-domain and nuclear deterrence — a total deterrent greater than the sum of the parts.
This symposium convenes senior government officials and experts from academia and the private sector to address the U.S. Department of State’s newly created Bureau of Cyberspace and Digital Policy, the goals of American cyber diplomacy, and how major public and private international stakeholders can advance global cyber cooperation amidst threats from authoritarian states like Russia and China. The symposium includes a keynote session with Ambassador Nathaniel Fick and as well as a session on Digital Diplomacy Around the World.
To watch the symposium (or read the transcript), click here.
Is Net-Zero a Possible Solution to the Climate Problem?
Posted on Monday October 30 2023
By John M. Deutch, MIT Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research, October, 2023.
Historically, the objective of climate policy has been to maintain the global average temperature increase under a specified level. Increasingly, countries and organizations today express the objective as a specific target date for reaching Net-zero emissions. Over ninety countries, including China and India, responsible for 80% of global greenhouse emissions have set Net-zero emission targets; the United States and the European Union have pledged to reach a Net-zero economy by 2050. This commentary explains why achieving global Net-zero is highly unlikely by any certain date and, even if achieved, will not necessarily solve the climate problem.
We don’t yet know what classified documents and information former President Donald Trump took with him to Mar-a-Lago. But all of this talk about the secrets the government keeps from its citizens gets to a gripe of mine as a journalist: The US government often misapplies classification as a way to hide embarrassing rather than sensitive things. Laws are in place to prevent cover-ups, but shining light on the government is an essential part of accountability. To learn more about legitimate secrets versus overclassified cover-ups, I talked to Tom Blanton, director of the National Security Archive at George Washington University. It was founded in 1985 by journalists and historians who wanted to create a nongovernmental archive of Freedom of Information Act releases. It also sues the government to try to save and preserve government records.
“Existentially important politics,” by James Bosworth, Latin America Risk Report, December 26, 2023. In recent years, we don’t get many boring elections in the hemisphere. Instead, it feels like every president is elected in a moment of crisis with a mandate to change the direction of the country. In the space between elections, political systems […]
“New Supply ‘Front’ for Afghan War Runs Across Russia, Georgia and the ‘Stans,” by Bill Marmon, The European Institute, February – March 2010. The U.S. engagement in Afghanistan, including the 30,000 “plus-up” currently underway, represents one of the most difficult logistical challenges in the annals of war – a challenge even for the United States, […]
“War Unbound: Gaza, Ukraine, and the Breakdown of International Law,” by Oona A. Hathaway, Foreign Affairs, April 23, 2024. Hamas’s attack on Israel and Israel’s response to it have been a disaster for civilians. In its October 7 massacre, Hamas sought out unarmed Israeli civilians, including women, children, and the elderly, killing close to 1,200 […]
“Success in the Struggle against the People’s Republic of China,” by Dr. John Lee and Dr. Lavina Lee, Hudson Institute, June 2023. In April 2023, the Australian government released the officially commissioned but independently produced Defence Strategic Review. Intended to assist the government of Australia with its strategic and defense policies over the next decade […]
“The ‘Climate Crisis’ Fades Out,” by Steven E. Koonin, Wall Street Journal, June 10, 2023. The 2015 Paris Agreement aspired to “reduce the risks and impacts of climate change” by eliminating greenhouse-gas emissions in the latter half of this century. The centerpiece of the strategy was a global transition to low-emission energy systems. After nearly […]
“National Security Memorandum on United States Global Leadership to Strengthen the International COVID-19 Response and to Advance Global Health Security and Biological Preparedness,” by US White House, National Security Memorandum, January 21, 2021. The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is a grave reminder that biological threats, whether naturally occurring, accidental, or deliberate, can have significant and […]
“NATO Ready for Battle, but Lacks Stamina, Report Finds,” by Laura Heckman, National Defense, June 11, 2024. Since NATO’s adoption of a “back to the future” strategy at its Madrid Summit two years ago on the heels of Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine, the alliance has made significant strides toward forward defense and deterrence, and […]
“The Middle East and the President’s Sweeping Power Over Self-Defense,” by Jack Goldsmith, Lawfare, October 23, 2023. The Middle East may be on the verge of large-scale war, and the U.S. military is literally on the firing line. Late last week, the USS Carney intercepted and destroyed three missiles and several drones fired from Yemen even though […]
“A way forward on a US-Saudi civil nuclear agreement,” by Robert Einhorn, Brookings Institution, April 12, 2024. The Biden administration has responded positively to Saudi Arabia’s interest in civil nuclear cooperation with the United States—both because such cooperation is a Saudi condition for the normalization of Saudi-Israeli relations, which the administration strongly supports, and because […]
By Edward Lucas, Catherine Sendak, Charlotta Collén, Jan Kallberg and Krista Viksnins, Center for European Policy Analysis, September 28, 2023. For the countries around the Baltic Sea, Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine both highlighted a problem and created a potential solution to it. The Kremlin’s unambiguous demonstration of aggressive intent and capability underlined the risks of dismantling […]
By Jake Walles, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, April 19, 2021. The arrival of a new U.S. administration offers a welcome opportunity for a reset of U.S. policy vis-á-vis the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Donald Trump’s administration followed an approach that diverged sharply from those of its predecessors, but its so-called new thinking achieved little and unnecessarily alienated […]
Lehman, Ron. “Sputnik-like Events: Responding to Technological Surprise.” In Strategic Latency: Red, White, and Blue — Managing the National and International Security Consequences of Disruptive Technologies edited by Zachary S. Davis and Michael Nacht, pp 33-51. Center for Global Security Research, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, 2016. National security costs imposed by technological surprise can be […]
Council on Foreign Relations, March 2023. This symposium convenes senior government officials and experts from academia and the private sector to address the U.S. Department of State’s newly created Bureau of Cyberspace and Digital Policy, the goals of American cyber diplomacy, and how major public and private international stakeholders can advance global cyber cooperation amidst […]
Is Net-Zero a Possible Solution to the Climate Problem?
Posted on Monday October 30
By John M. Deutch, MIT Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research, October, 2023. Historically, the objective of climate policy has been to maintain the global average temperature increase under a specified level. Increasingly, countries and organizations today express the objective as a specific target date for reaching Net-zero emissions. Over ninety countries, including China […]
By Zachary B. Wolf, CNN, September 3, 2022. We don’t yet know what classified documents and information former President Donald Trump took with him to Mar-a-Lago. But all of this talk about the secrets the government keeps from its citizens gets to a gripe of mine as a journalist: The US government often misapplies classification […]